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The National
Business Review
May 3, 2002, page 16
The National Business Review-Compaq poll
First guilt poll reveals public view on controversial case
by Deborah Hill Cone
PUBLIC’S
VERDICT
guilty not guilty
Peter Ellis 25% 51%
David Bain 33% 40%
Scott Watson 59% 14%
Mark Lundy 76% 6%
A new poll out today which reveals most people think convicted sexual abuser
Peter Ellis is innocent will put more pressure on the government to revisit
the controversial case.
The National Business Review Compaq poll found 51 % of people now believe
Ellis was not guilty of sexual abuse at the Christchurch crèche.
That was more than double the 25% who thought he was guilty, or 24% who were
unsure or refused to answer.
In Christchurch,
where feelings ran highest, 55% of people said Ellis was innocent.
No poll of this kind has ever been undertaken about the Ellis case before.
Author Lynley Hood, who spent seven years writing A City Possessed: The
Christchurch Civic Creche case, said the poll result confirmed there was a
strong feeling among the public that Peter Ellis was not guilty.
She emphasised she was not a campaigner for Ellis - "I'm not advocate
for Peter Ellis; I'm an advocate for a credible justice system" - but
believed the government should pardon Ellis and address the issues which led
to his conviction.
Justice Minister Phil Goff has indicated he considered the case closed
following last year's report by the former Chief Justice Sir Thomas
Eichelbaum, commissioned by the Attorney-General, which concluded Ellis'
convictions should stand.
But critics, including New Zealand Law Journal editor Bernard Robertson, said
the ministerial inquiry was either wrongly directed or at fault.
They have called for the government to revisit the issue and Ms Hood said she
believed the government should order an independent commission of inquiry,
headed by an overseas judge.
She favoured the model of the South African truth and reconciliation
commission, which aimed to uncover the truth rather than award compensation.
The issues, raised in her book, which she believed ought to be addressed by
an inquiry were the conduct of the police, the law which does not distinguish
between true and false allegations of child abuse and the question over
whether the Court of Appeal has great difficulty correcting its own mistakes.
"They are problems that go far beyond the Ellis case," Ms Hood
said.
Ellis maintains, even after release from custody where he served seven years
of a 10-year sentence, that he is innocent.
Mr Goff has asked a Ministry of Justice official to read Ms Hood's 700-page book
and do an appraisal of it, although this would not be an official report.
The bombshell poll also reveals the public has significant doubts over the
guilt of convicted murderer David Bain.
The poll question was: "There have been some high-profile court cases in
the last few years. While you will not have had access to all the information
a jury gets, from what you have read, seen or heard do you think the
following are guilty or not guilty?"
Overall, 40% of people thought Bain was not guilty of the murder of his
family
In Dunedin, a larger group than the 33% who thought he was guilty.
Twenty-seven per cent of people were unsure or refused to answer the question
on that case.
Questions about two more recent murder prosecutions received a more emphatic
answer from the public.
Fifty-nine per cent of people thought Scott Watson was guilty of the murder
of Ben Smart and Olivia Hope in the Marlborough Sounds; 15% said he was not
guilty and 26% were unsure or refused.
In the most recent case - Mark Lundy, who was convicted of the murder or his
wife and daughter in Palmerston North, was deemed to be guilty by 76% of
people.
The finding in the Bain case has also been questioned, after crusading former
All Black Joe Karam wrote two books arguing David Bain was innocent - 1997's
David & Goliath and Bain & Beyond in 2000.
Another book on the case, The Mask of Sanity, by respected writer James
McNeish, concluded Bain was guilty.
The poll findings suggest the public has less than full confidence in the
court system, a view borne out by last week's NBR-Compaq poll which surveyed
the public's confidence in public institutions.
It found only 11 % of people had a great deal of confidence in the
courts, while 31 % said they had quite
a lot of confidence. Seventeen per cent of people had very little confidence
in the courts, and 38% answered "some."
The UMR Research omnibus is a telephone survey of a nationally
representative sample of 750 New Zealanders aged 18 or older. Fieldwork was
conducted between April 4-8 at UMR Research's national interview facility in Auckland. The margin of
error for a 50% figure at the "95% confidence level" is ?3.6%. If
there are any inquiries about this poll, please contact UMR Research on
0-4473 1061 (phone), 04-472 3501 (fax) or umr@unir co.nz
(email).
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